Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
